Out-Migration 2.0
By: Ryan Young
It was just over a year ago that the former PC government announced their
strategy to tackle negative population growth in this province. The plan: Live
Here, Work Here, Belong Here, certainly lacked measurable goals, which was the
major flaw of most PC policy, but it did mean that the government was at least
acknowledging that the issue of population growth needed to be addressed.
To get a real accurate look at our population change, we need to go back to the
last glory days of rural Newfoundland. In 1992, Newfoundland reached its peak
population of 580 000. That same year saw the cod moratorium and the beginning
of the largest out-migration in our history. Around the bay, no matter how bad
things were, you could always fish. When that birthright was taken away in
1992, the exodus began. Over the next 15 years, the population had dropped by
more than 70 000 people to just 509 000 in 2007. Many of the ones who left the province
for greener pastures were the young families with children.
Although the population of Newfoundland and Labrador actually grew by 19 000 people
between 2008 and 2013, the overall downward trend has led the Conference Board
of Canada to predict that our population will decrease by more than 45 000 people,
to around 485 000 by 2035. Perhaps even more disturbing is that by 2035, more
than 30% of the total population will be made up of seniors. The cumulative
effect of all of those young families leaving the province is catching up with
us, and we are not ready for this major demographic shift.
Last week it was announced that the provincial population
had dropped by 2500 people in 2015. With the measures contained in Budget 2016
and the total abandonment of the population growth strategy, we can expect that
the numbers for 2016 will be much larger than 2500. Many have already left in
search of better opportunities, and with little opportunity for new, debt-laden
graduates, there is not much to entice our young families to stay and
contribute to a real stronger tomorrow.
If you are asking yourself why all of this is important to you, I’ll put it in
the simple terms that anyone can understand. If our population continues to
drop, that means a smaller tax base for the government to collect from. That
means that in order to maintain revenue levels, governments will have to
continue to raise taxes to provide services. Simply put, it will cost you more money
if we don’t find a way to fix the problem. On top of the tax base, an aging
population also means increased healthcare costs, which again will have to be
paid for by the limited number of tax payers left in the province. It is a
dangerous combination, and our government seems quite content to leave the
problem for future generations to figure out.
The measures contained in Budget 2016 were short sighted for a number of
reasons, but maybe most important of all is the effect that it will have on our
population. The Conference Board predictions were based on natural trends and
did not take into account the extra financial burdens that would contribute to
a new wave of out-migration. With the province in a recession and no relief in
sight, it is reasonable to assume that the rate of depopulation will continue
to increase. A perfect storm is gathering that has the potential to leave our
province in financial ruin, without enough capital to provide adequate services
to our aging population.
So how do we turn the trend around? There is no quick fix or magic solution. It
will take a combination of new measures and policy shifts that will need to be
implemented with long-term, measurable, goals. It will take time, but if we act
now we can attempt to reverse the trend and start to grow our population.
Immigration is certainly part of the solution, but I am
skeptical of how much long-term growth we can realistically expect from
attracting new residents to the province. The biggest problem is that
Newfoundland and Labrador does not have any large ethnic communities. While
some immigrants come and build a new life here, the vast majority end up moving
on to larger centers such as Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver where there are
more social and economic opportunities, and often large communities from their
native homes, established by previous immigrants. It is unlikely that this
trend will change anytime soon, and for that reason, immigration can only act
as a partial solution to the population problem.
In order to grow our population, the most important thing we
need to do is provide a stable economy and better support for our families and
young people. We need to invest in real economic diversification that includes
investing in Newfoundlander's. We need to provide better support for small
business and to think outside the box to find solutions to renewing our rural
economy. We are blessed with an abundance of talent and ingenuity in this
province and we need to find ways to tap into that spirit through targeted investments
in order to create a stable economy that will encourage our young leaders to
stay at home and raise a family.
While we rebuild our economy, we must also do better in supporting our young
families. Increased child care supports and subsidies are needed to ensure
greater workplace participation, especially by women. We must also work with
our federal government to develop better parental leave options that encourage
families to have more children. In my work with the provincial child care
coalition, one reoccurring theme has been that people want to have more
children, but it is just too expensive. When you consider that a family with an
infant and a toddler in St. John’s will pay around $25 000 a year for child
care, it is easy to see why they don’t consider having a third child. In rural
areas of the province, the problem is often lack of any child care supports at
all. ¾ of all children in Newfoundland and Labrador have no access to registered
child care. If we really want to encourage our young families to stay here and
have more children, we need to support them.
Keeping our young graduates in the province is another major
issue that needs to be addressed if we are going to grow our population. “Brain
Drain” has been an ongoing issue for this province for decades. Many of our
best and brightest minds leave the province in search of opportunities that are
not available to them here. The first thing we need to do is facilitate more of
our young people to receive a post-secondary education. Cancelling tuition
grants was another very short-sighted decision by this government. It will lead
to lower enrollment numbers and less qualified people in our workforce. We need
to encourage our youth to be educated and available for future growth
opportunities. In order to keep our youth here we must also continue to invest
in research and development and to support our graduates to become entrepreneurs
and the new leaders of our economy.
We can do it. We can turn it around. All we need is someone
with the political will to realize how big the problem is, and how important it
is that we tackle it head on. There are many solutions that we could explore to
grow our population but unfortunately none of them can be found in Budget 2016.
Unless we want to see another mass out-migration like1992, we need to start
working together to build a Newfoundland and Labrador that can support its own
people. We have everything we need, except the will to change.